Thursday, September 26, 2013

Out Side Boeing's Camelot

Place* , Aviation, Auto & Transportation



The world outside CamelotHas some ugly monsters approaching Boeing's CastleThe Article from Investors Place outlines this thesis:


The following article outlinesthree Boeing rough spots developing outside its walls in the Northwest stretching clear to Chicago's golden vaults. Not all is well at Sundown out beyond Camelot.Use the link above or read below the article by,

, Aviation, Autoanother Dreamliner had to leave behind 70 ticketed passengers in New York because a hydraulic pump problem caused a weight limitation. What makes these glitches different from other "teething problems"? In a break with the typical airline-manufacturer code of silence, Norwegian Air has taken the fight public. "We have not had the reliability that we had expected from brand new planes, so something must happen, fast," company officials said last week. "Clearly Boeing has not had good enough operative quality control."Those are code phrases for serious compensation -- a tactic that if successful, will have other 787 operators lining up to imitate. It also could steal the thunder of the new 787-9 and raise questions about how realistic production targets are for BA's jets -- including major new launches like the 737 MAX and the 777X.



AIRBUS SALES ARE SOARING IN ASIA



If Airbus had deliberately wanted to pour salt into Boeing's wounds, it couldn't have picked a better time to announce $15 billion worth of aircraft orders to Asian carriers.On Wednesday, Airbus announced several deals including afrom companies in China alone . The lion's share of the orders were for A320 series narrow-body aircraft -- which will include the A320neo, Airbus' fuel-efficient workhorse jet that directly competes with BA's 737 MAX.These deals are particularly significant because Asia is the fastest-growing air travel market, and existing and start-up carriers will need to buy tens of thousands of new aircraft in the coming two decades.



BOTTOM LINE



Let's be clear: Boeing is not poised on a precipice. Its fundamentals are strong, and there's a lot to like about the way the company has thrived despite the slings and arrows of 2013. That said, there are too many storm clouds on the horizon for this stock to escape turbulence indefinitely.And Boeing must get a handle on the Dreamliner glitches now or risk customer goodwill -- and future orders. The Sword of Damocles is not suspended over BA Chairman and CEO James McNerney's head yetbut it will be if he can't find a way to stop the bleeding.As of this writing, Susan J. Aluise did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks."------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Excellent talking and discussion points. I don't want to spin this as a no problem issue with

logical sounding and plausible rational from a Boeing point of view. Facts are facts and the organization must address these concerns objectively and soundly. The loss of the F-15 is a public image defeat in the military and defense end. It was a bonus to have the F-15 Silent eagle under consideration but is a harbinger of things to come with an old military frame with upgraded systems going against the troubled F-35. A scaled down F-35 may bebetter than a enhanced F-15 SE. That is Korea's answer. They are willing to wait for fifth generation fighters than use a much studied replacement from the f-15 stable. Its shorter delivery time is not as important with the Us navy fleet hanging out near Korea until the cows come home.



Epic Teething Problems for an Epic Airplane. I don't what else to add here for the discussion.Yes, the Dream)Liner problems are a disappointment for both customers and Boeing. No excuses here for realizing the inherent risks of quantum technology leaps coming true. Boeing had hoped that due diligence carries the day in side Camelot. But does it suppliers exercise the same capital investment for thosesame assurances of shared risks? Both Boeing and its suppliers are busy at the fix-it board making the 787 fly everyday much to the chagrins of its paying airline customers. That is that reality outside Camelot's walls, customer disaffection with glitches. A bad taste of soured grapes from Camelot's vineyard.



Finally those pesky China orders, I knew the day would come when Airbus would ck the Great Wall of China with NEO's. It comes back to Capitalization value is better than theeconomy of operation in a close horse race. Someday, no matter how well prepared the product is, the customer goes another way. The NEO is competitive even though I believe the Max is a better aircraft. Ryan Air bought 175 737 NG's for quick delivery and a low price ignoring the Max. Why, because cost of money is lower for the NG selling at a lower price, out weighing buying the more expensive Max and placement in-line would be shorter in receiving one. What about the long NEO line, China just got into at this time? Answer: Price is worth the wait, Airbus must have offered China a price it couldn't refuse in light of waiting for aircraft much later. The later time slot pleased the customer, and was in no need of instant gratification of having NEO's. This is not just rational to appease Boeing thinking,, it is the reality outside the castle walls. Its the three purchasing principals: price, price, and price; Plus what can you do for me. Its not a testament of who has the bestairplane or the best fuel economy. Its a result of the backroom deal who played it best. Boeing and airbus are played against each other, for the benefit of China. All the crowing frame builders make on every dealis sometime a smoke screen for the financial reality behind closed doors.



Back to Camelot and Boeing, whether its a trend line for turbulence or an accumulation of intersecting news events that run contrary Boeing's Camelot state of mind, the troops of both Boeing and Airbus are engages in the Market Place. The customer always wins when they get what they want, much to the disappointment of the other Guy. The other, this week, is Boeing. China needed this order to get what they want from Boeing. Split orders are littering the battle field in the Market. Like 25 to 787 vs 25 A-350 and so forth. Leverage is the only tool for victory for the customer, because they too have competitors.



The admonition above from the investor article brings into view big business, and rightly so. I agree with the outlook as it brings back to reality the turbulence of the market place,innovation has a price as well as stale product (F-15) and back hangs heavy at times when

your competitor makes a marchnot because of product, but because of price.. That summary is true for both Airbus and Boeing. The strongest castle wins in the game of reality.
Full Post

No comments:

Post a Comment